After the Gaza front has relatively calmed, and with Netanyahu’s efforts stalled, along with the difficulty of resuming the genocide in Gaza in its previous form due to American pressure, the Israeli prime minister and his partners are increasingly directing their attention toward the Lebanese front — a front that is geographically closer, and perhaps less costly should the aggression expand or the war be reignited. The most prominent indicators of this include:
    •    Official Israeli incitement, which now speaks extensively about Hezbollah rebuilding part of its military capabilities, smuggling hundreds of missiles through land crossings, and its absolute refusal to disarm as demanded by both the Israeli government and the U.S. administration, a demand that the Lebanese government has also firmly rejected.
    •    The replenishment of Israeli army ammunition stockpiles through an American air bridge, particularly the MK-series bunker-penetrating missiles that form the backbone of the Israeli Air Force’s offensive capabilities.
    •    Military exercises conducted recently in the north of occupied Palestine, involving maneuvers and simulated incursions into terrain similar to that of southern Lebanon.

There are also preparations to deal with the possibility of other fronts igniting, in the context of supporting Hezbollah and preventing its complete defeat or destruction, especially from the Houthis in Yemen, and from the Iraqi front, where Shiite factions are reportedly prepared to target Israeli territory with hypersonic missiles or explosive suicide drones.

Netanyahu and his allies are seeking an uncalculated military escalation in Lebanon or elsewhere at this stage — not due to purely military considerations or an imminent threat, as their propaganda claims, but for internal and even personal political reasons, linked to Netanyahu, his family, and his coalition partners.

Netanyahu bases his upcoming moves on unconditional American support, especially from the U.S. president, and believes that if he receives a green light from Trump, he will be able to act as he wishes anywhere in the Middle East, regardless of the consequences or the strategic interests of the Israeli state.

If war breaks out again on the Lebanese front, there is no clear vision of how it could end or what it might lead to.